Samsung is expected to edge out Apple in 2026 foldable sales thanks in part to the Galaxy Z Fold 7. | Image by PhoneArena
As impressive as the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max might look compared to their already magnificent predecessors, there's no question that the most exciting new Apple product expected to be released this year is an entirely different one.
I'm talking, of course, about the iPhone Fold (or iPhone Ultra, or whatever it will be called), which has reportedly been in the works for a number of years now and is finally widely (and credibly) predicted for a fall launch... and an instant impact on the expanding global foldable market.
Samsung will (probably) still be the world's number one vendor
Samsung's number one spot is clearly in danger all of a sudden. | Image by Counterpoint Research
That would be down from a much larger 40 percent slice of the pie in 2025, which is obviously not the kind of "evolution" a mobile industry leader and veteran normally targets, but more concerningly for Samsung, it would only beat Apple's projected market share by 3 percent, very clearly setting the stage for a change in leadership in 2027.
It's hard to describe how epic of an achievement it would be for Apple to score 28 percent of all 2026 foldable sales with a first-gen product released in September (at the earliest), although for the time being, that number should be treated with caution, as no one really knows anything for sure about the "iPhone Ultra" and how consumers will react to its (long overdue) debut.
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Will you be buying a new foldable in 2026?
It's true, Apple seems very "well-positioned" to knock it out of the park right off the bat in this currently Samsung-dominated arena due to its "long-standing experience with iPadOS and large-screen software optimization" (especially if the iPhone Fold's prices are kept at around the same level as the Galaxy Z Fold 7), but a lot of different elements could still come into play and knock that predicted 28 percent share down... or up.
Apple will take from all other vendors and help the market grow like crazy
Samsung is naturally not the only major foldable phone maker expected to suffer an important year-over-year decline in market share as soon as Apple enters the ring, with Huawei also looking at a drop from 30 to 23 percent, Motorola bracing for an 8 percent slice of the pie after taking 12 percent in 2025, and Honor potentially facing a shocking slide from 7 percent share to just 3 percent in 2026.
This is how the iPhone Fold is currently expected to look. | Image by FrontPageTech
Oh, and then you have Google, which was pretty irrelevant last year, with a modest 2 percent market share, and is now projected to become... even less relevant, at 1 percent this year.
Of course, not all of these market share declines are expected to mean actual drops in sales figures as well, as the market segment is forecasted to expand by a whopping 20 percent thanks to Apple's highly anticipated entry.
Curiously enough, Counterpoint Research isn't saying how many foldable devices were shipped around the world in 2025 and exactly where that number is likely to go in 2026, so there's no way to know (at least based on this new report) if Apple's rumored 20 million unit iPhone Fold production target is realistic or not.
What will happen in 2027?
If it's too early to know for sure just how close Apple will sit to Samsung in the final foldable vendor hierarchy of 2026, it's obviously far too early to predict the difference between the two at the end of next year.
But Apple's 2027 victory seems pretty much guaranteed right now, no matter how big the Galaxy Z Fold 8's battery might be, if the Z Flip 8 actually changes... anything about the Z Flip 7, and how successful the first-of-a-kind Galaxy Wide Fold will prove.
Behind the top two vendors, I expect Huawei to be able to consolidate its bronze medal place... despite Motorola's best efforts of challenging the Galaxy Z Fold family with a new Razr Fold lineup and the always strong appeal of the clamshell-style Razr roster.
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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